Why Microsoft Will Bounce Back

There has been a lot of talk about Microsoft being behind the curve lately, especially in light of their recent failed attempts to purchase Yahoo!. Fact is, Microsoft is in trouble. They are in the kind of trouble that many big companies have been faced with in the past - stagnation. Stagnation is deadly, especially in the world of high tech. So, is Microsoft doomed to failure? Should we all sell our shares and get out, especially now that Bill Gates is gone?

No.

Microsoft will turn around. Why? Precisely because of all the press and discussion of its errors. Jack Welch, the great CEO of General Electric, said this about change: "When the whole world knows about your problem, the wind is at your back."
The whole world knows about Microsoft's problem, and that is why they will succeed. They will succeed because they are a company filled with smart people and they have everything going for them, except change. Yes, they have lost this round with Google adSense, but so what? If they concentrate on markets they can win in, on positive change, they will succeed. So, buy Microsoft stock today? Maybe, maybe not. But don't count them out. Everyone else is, and that's why Microsoft will succeed.

Social Web Services are Like Sex

...they either explode or limp into oblivion.

Chaos and Career Planning - Where To Next?

Image via WikipediaToday I want to write about a question that I spend 90% of my mental energy on: What am I going to do after my Masters degree?

I think sharing my ideas on this in the open blog format is best, as it a. fulfills one of the purposes of blogging (personal thoughts) b. fits into one of the categories this blog covers (personal/career development) c. allows others to see what I'm thinking and opens up the discussion (the most successful people seek the most advice, and then they have the edge to act).

Two general tracks are possible to me: more school or the working world. This is going to be a long list...I'm very confused!

1) More School
A. PhD Economic History
Besides this being just plain interesting, I could probably get into a program at Berkeley or Stanford (or an Ivy, but I love California), since this is within the same line as my previous achievements. But do I really want to be a professor? And how about that nice house I promised myself I'd be able to afford. Also, if I go straight to PhD, where do I get the money to finish paying off my prior schooling.
B. PhD Political Economy
Again, extremely interesting. Possibly more access to the kinds of applied careers I'd be interested in than with the Economic History degree. Less of a track record in this, less likely to get into a top program.
C. PhD Economics (probably Development)
Possibly the most access to applied careers that are grounded in the kind of research I am interested in. Does not play particularly well to my track record of achievement - I would have to do some major math coursework somewhere before applying.
D. MS Computer Science
Do I want to do whatever it takes to become a VC? Is this the best path? How dare I attempt to become an expert in tech without knowing how it works under the hood. I think this subject is interesting, and the applications of it even more so. I don't think I want to be an application programmer, though, unless its for my own startup.

2) Working World
A. Investment Banking
Standard path. Good pay, excellent resume item/door opener. Bills paid off fast, and heck, I do enjoy finance! I also enjoy free time :/
B. Private Equity
Well, better than I Banking since I get to be closer to the kinds of investing I am interested in - probably. Pay better, hours similar. Near impossible to get in. May require I banking experience first.
C. Any role in a Start-up
Not doing the work I want to do, but in the industry with which I want to work! The fast track to Venture Capital? Poor pay, job security, hours. Can I really work at a tech company doing something I don't necessarily love for $50,000 when I can grab a banking job doing something closer to my interest (at a micro-level) with $120,000+ up for grabs?

So there you have it. Me + career path = confusion + anguish

Help?!?!

My Number One Friendfeed Feature Suggestion

Ok, so that break from tech was shorter lived than I anticipated. I am only writing because I really want to get this feature down on "paper".

My Number One Friendfeed Feature Suggestion is...

Customizable Follow Tabs:

At the top of the FriendFeed web interface there are a few tabs - "friends", "rooms", "me", "everyone". I think FriendFeed needs to add the ability to create your own customizable tabs.
Let's face it - not everyone you follow is someone whose opinions you care deeply about. And thats great - when you have a lot of free time. But what if you want to read only the things a select few people are doing. Maybe this list of people includes your best friends and a few of your favorite web 2.0 luminaries like Louis Gray and Steve Hodson ;) . And what if you aren't really interested to see even these people's flicker photos all the time, or the concert they are attending (through Upcoming). FriendFeed users ought to be able to create mini lists of their favorite users, and customize (reduce) the number of services that show up in that tab. Then, the next time I'm pressed for time and have 3 minutes to find out whats happened in tech in the last 3 days, I click my "Favorites" tab, or whatever I've labeled it, and I know, without wading through myriad posts.

FriendFeed users - don't you just want this feature RIGHT NOW?!
Someone tell Paul :)

A Break From Tech

Starting now I am taking the next few days off from the Tech World. I will report on my deprivation on Thursday or Friday. For now, I have to deal with this research paper on the political economics of Eurozone membership! Email me or direct twitter if you to reach me!

Note: comic from here

Monetizing Twitter - The First Mover Disadvantage

Image via WikipediaMark Hopkins over at Mashable has a post up titled "Renting Twitter: Path to Profitability?". The basic concept of the post is to sell the twitter user's background and profile picture to advertisers. While this isn't a particularly original idea, it also isn't much of a viable model. In the words of Twitter's own Evan Williams,

Thanks for the idea. I'm not particularly optimistic about this as an overall business model for Twitter. For one thing, the percentage of users whom this would apply to is very tiny. Twitter is meant to be a communications tool for the masses. We love the Scobles and other power users, but they're kind of anomolies (by definition). The the percentage of these users who wanted to do this is even smaller -- and Twitter's share of that is smaller yet. And that's assuming this model even works.

That said, we're cool with people monetizing their own use of Twitter, in general (as long as they're above-board about it). Because it's all opt-in, if people are annoyed or not getting value, unfollow is easy.

As a side note, and for the record, while we don't mind the community brainstorming, we're not in desperate search for a business model. We have some ideas we'll try out when the time is right, but Twitter isn't going to go away for lack of one any time soon (nor will reliability issues be solved with one).

Lastly, please stop perpetuating the "Scoble is the reason that Twitter is failing" myth. We've not said that. Our system has been the problem -- and we're working on it! :)

Thanks.

What I like about this comment from Evan is that he recognizes that the time to monetize twitter is not right now. Here are the problems with monetizing right now:

1) Twitter is broken
Until Twitter gets the bugs worked out in their architecture, advertisers are going to show very little interest in an always down service. Imagine the cost structure of television ads if the more people were watching in your time slot, the more likely the channel would turn off! Superbowl ads would be worthless! This is Twitter's current status, and I am not impressed by their uptime during WWDC yesterday, considering they turned off/limited many features just to keep it from all blowing up.

2) Twitter isn't popular enough
I really don't think microblogging has reached the critical mass--or tipping point as web geeks like to say--that is required to make business models based on reaching large numbers of people, regularly, viable. And I assume that any advertising based model for twitter is predicated on these requirements. This all feeds into, I think, my most important point...

3) The first to monetize is the first to lose its users
Twitter faces competition from a number of different services. None of these services are monetized right now. They are all completely dedicated to their users, and users like this. They are used to it. If twitter becomes the first mover on monetization, and if that monetization is even the least bit invasive, users will flock to alternative services, or at least try them out. And who knows, they may be better! In which case, users will stay.

So, my recommendation to Twitter:
Check yo'self before you wreck yo'self, foo.

A Venture Capitalist At Foundry Group Tells Me...

...That my business model in the post below probably won't work. Seth Levine, a venture capitalist with Foundry Group, hinted to me that government buying cycles have a way of ruining any business model predicated on government purchase. It's a sad state of affairs. I think one way to overcome this would be to set an example with your product in a major test-city, say San Francisco. Based on what Seth has told me, any idea based on selling to government needs all the leverage it can get to convince the bureaucrats to take the plunge.

A Business Model For Hyperlocal

There has been a good deal of talk on the blogosphere about hyperlocal websites lately in response to an article in the Wall Street Journal about the Washington Post's "Hyperlocal Flop", LoudounExtra.com. Hyperlocal is seen by many as the new way to do local content, replacing your local newspaper with neighborhood and small-region-centric content, and moving away from standard "news items" to items of a more personal interest.

Fred Wilson blogged about hyperlocal yesterday, and his main point was that hyperlocal will not be successful unless it is peer produced (as opposed to being run from a news desk). I agree with this assertion.

I think communities will only exist when people have incentive to create them, and peer-produced content proves that this incentive exists. It is self-fulfilling.

I have a proposal for a hyperlocal business model, and since it will be awhile before I'm out of school, I'll share the seed of the idea here and risk some genius picking it up and running with it!
Hyperlocal Business Model:
Government Centered, Peer Produced

The product: software or web service sold to local governments (towns, counties) that allows for open debate of local issues and law.

Aids government and locals by streamlining process by which input is gathered, voices heard, and decisions made at the council level.

Also serves as a content aggregator for blogs on local issues, with a crowdsourced ranking system for sites and opinions, almost like a digg front page of ideas. Community announcements would also find a place here.

By giving local government an incentive to promote the use of the software by the citizens, it has built in promotional potential. This allows it to quickly take advantage of network effects.

Just some thoughts on a potential business model for Hyperlocal content. A brainstorm, if you will.

How Free Software Changes Everything

Well, that could probably be the topic of an entire book. But one thing that struck me today (a very obvious point, but I will make it, nonetheless) is the way free changes user loyalty. Or at least ought to. I was reading Walt Mossberg's Personal Technology blog today about Firefox 3.0 being the best web browser. Of course Firefox is free software, but so are all the other browsers. In his article, Mossberg declares Firefox 3.0 the best internet browser on any platform..."for now". It is this "for now" that is interesting to me. Not only does the web and the highly iterative nature of this software allow for constantly changing "bests" but, because its free and easy to replace with the new best. This means brand loyalty is a much harder thing to build on the internet for products whose use is fairly transparent--mainly easy-to-use consumer software. On the other hand, there is a fair amount of brand loyalty in the tech world, even in the area of browsers.

One way this brand loyalty builds up is through support for a company's mission: many people use firefox, not only because it is often better than Internet Explorer, but because it is opensource and released by a non-profit. Something similar is at work when some people consistently buy AMD processors despite no logical reason to do so (much slower, often more expensive, etc.).

Another trick to building loyalty is, and I've said this before, making your product a platform. Even if the next version of Internet Explorer is faster and has all the same built in features...I will still use Firefox. Why? Because of extensions! Mozilla has built a proprietary platform into Firefox, and now I am not just loyal to Firefox, I am loyal to all the little widgets and whatzits that I use on a daily basis and that I can only get in Firefox.

The moral of the story is, when software is free, having a good product can only get you so far. There has to be something more to keep users, or they will jump ship as soon as someone one-ups you, which, I'm happy to say, is guaranteed.

Google Has A New Favicon!

I'm serious, Google has a new icon! Go to google.com and look at the little icon that appears to the left of the url in your browser! Favicon for you fancy pants types. Maybe other new designs are on the way...the icon's color scheme doesn't really fit with google as we know it. Just something I noticed while googling Michael Arrington . Don't ask.

10 Web 2.0 Services I Use - And You Should Too!

Here's a little list of online services that I use regularly - I recommend them all.

Mini Best of the Web 2.0 Services List
1. Gmail
- because email should be easy.
2. Facebook
- everyone else uses it!
3. LinkedIn
- networking is kind of important, this site does it pretty well.
4. filtrbox
- create your own filters, then get a daily email with fresh content that matches those filters. A great way to find out what people are thinking outside of your own social network.
5. Google Analytics
- because we all need to know
6. 30 Boxes
- simple, intuitive calendar/to do list site. Everything you need, nothing you don't.
7. FriendFeed
- with the 5 bajillion web services out there, FriendFeed allows me to keep my sanity while keeping up with my friends and other smarty pants. And the built-in commenting is fostering the growth of a new meta-community within FriendFeed. Join now, this is gonna be huge!
8. Twitter
- despite the downtime, its simple and useful. Unless something better gets critical mass (better probably exists already...), this is the microblogging service to use.
9. Blogger
- start building your online presence. Blogger is great for personal use/first timers (myself included!)
10. Snurl
- because tinyurl is too long.

Any little known web 2.0 services that you think are essential? Let me know!

Forget Luck - Success is Planning!

Brad Feld's blog points to a post by entrepreneur Paul Berberian about the process he and his colleagues are going through to develop a new business idea. Berberian, whose last business idea fizzled out, is taking a not-so-novel (but very rare!) approach to his entrepreneurial future: he is thinking systematically through every possible business idea and then determining whether its viable. The big thing here is that he is not relying on some kind of random "Ah ha!" moment for the creation of his next business, he is forcing himself to sit down and asking "What do people want, what can I do, how can I make a business out of it."
I think this is an extremely important point to think about - from the smallest of life's successes to the rise of the biggest corporate powerhouses, things are built through pre-planned, active idea creation and goal setting. Sit down, grab a pencil and paper, and start writing, sketching, coming up with ideas. You don't have to have an "Ah ha" moment to come up with a great business idea, nor do you need such an epiphany to come up with an idea that you can really put yourself behind. You simply need a work ethic, applicable skills, and the wisdom to seek out those who know what you don't. If you have a good concept, you CAN create a great business.
So quit sitting around, waiting for inspiration to strike - strike inspiration!